Texas 41

Texas lost the opener on first and second down. The Longhorns finished at -0.12 EPA/play overall, and the real damage came on standard downs at -0.28 EPA/play, which meant too many drives were already in trouble before the ball ever got downfield. The defense was mixed rather than broken: Texas held Ohio State to 14 points, and Ohio State finished at -0.32 EPA/play through the air. The problem sat on the ground: Ohio State's ground game still produced +0.13 EPA/play, so Texas lost too many routine snaps on both sides of the ball. That is the opener in one sentence: Texas stayed close enough to matter, but it lost the ordinary-down snaps that decide games like this. Texas has to own first and second down again.